Publication

Abstract : This study presents a new planning algorithm for petroleum products with fluctuating demand. The proposed algorithm is tested with analysing and forecasting bitumen sales of a refinery. The algorithm presented in this study utilises decomposition forecasting with scenario analysis and optimisation. We introduced a risk measure factor in the objective function that would help to forecast the sales with more accuracy. Scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the bitumen sales and production at different conditions. The proposed algorithm would generate a favourable refinery operation schedule that would enable the production and sales with more refinery margin. The planning algorithm is validated with a case study.