Publication

Abstract : Climate change-induced disparities, notably the changes in rainfall patterns that result in prolonged wet and dry spells, agricultural drought, excessive surface runoff, and soil degradation, pose a serious threat to sustainable food production. Evaluating extreme dry and wet spell events and rainfall probability occurrence assessment are proven approaches for planning the mitigation strategies for crop cultivation against climate change. As the climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies are site-specific, this study compares two distinct rice-growing regions in the southern part of India. First, the extreme wet and dry spell events at various growth phases of rice cultivation are identified using Markov chain analysis. Further, the probability of rainfall occurrence is estimated using the incomplete gamma probability function in order to plan the mitigation strategy against the prolonged dry spell. Season-wise crop planning that coincides with monsoonal rain and water-harvesting structures to harvest the excess runoff volume are the optimal field solutions for sustainable rice cultivation and to mitigate the extreme wet and dry spells in these regions.