Publication

Abstract : Sudden outbreaks of agricultural pests are increasing in India due to the growing prominence of environmental issues like global warming, the occurrence of weather extremes, and hydrological extremes. Climate change impacts the developmental rates and population dynamics of agricultural pests. As rice is a staple food widely used in India, it often suffers intensive damage by various pests, leading to a considerable decrease in crop yield. One of the most common pests in rice fields in India and neighboring countries is the rice thrips (Stenchaetothrips biformis). However, the degree of pest infestation of rice crops under climate change scenarios is poorly known. Therefore, this study aimed to understand the potential geographical distribution of the rice thrips in India for future scenarios using the MaxEnt modeling framework. Future projections from global climate models (GCMs), such as HadGEM3-GC31 and MPI-ESMI-2, are used to predict the most affected regions in 2050 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The results from the MaxEnt indicate that the southern and northeastern parts of India will be highly affected by rice thrips in 2050. The affected number of districts are found to be 256, 330 and 313 under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. It has been observed that the maximum temperature is the most influential climatic parameter for the geographical distribution of rice thrips, followed by the annual mean and minimum temperatures. It can be concluded from these results that the elevated temperature enhances the growth and distribution of rice thrips.