Publication

Abstract : Heavy rainfall inducing other catastrophic events are frequently experienced globally. Understanding the mechanisms of moisture transport during such events will help in furthering our knowledge about such systems. In the current study, estimation of most likely moisture trajectoriesis performed using back trajectory analyses. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model available from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) is used for the purpose. A preliminary analysis is conducted by calculating the frequencies of back trajectories from two locations in Kerala for three heavy rainfall cases. The analysis indicates that both the locations have similar pattern of moisture trajectories during the cases occurring in south west monsoon and pre monsoon periods. However, a change in the behaviour of the trajectories for the two locations is observed for the case during the north east monsoon period. Since this study involved only individual cases, robust conclusions cannot be made based on this for the dynamics of moisture transport for these locations. More detailed analysis will follow this preliminary study in future for the purpose.