The present study is conducted in the Western Himalaya where a large proglacial lake associated with a glacier is expanding at a high rate since the last few decades. The aim was to analyse the historical glacial lake growth and predict the area and volume of lake expansion in the future. Preliminary analyses using satellite Landsat datasets (TM, ETM+, and OLI) from 1996 to 2022 are used to calculate the change in surface area of the lake and the retreat of the glacier. The results are then compared with well-established band ratio algorithms such as Normalized Difference Water Index and Normalized Difference Snow Index spectral indices. The results show that the surface area of the lake has increased by 52 hectares to 82.71 hectares from 1996 to 2022 which is an alarming rate of 48% over a period of 26 years. Furthermore, the glacier area was reduced from 26 km2 to 25.66 km2 in the same period glacier retreat is estimated as 27.8 m/yr. from 1996 to 2000. The rate of retreat has escalated in recent decades compared to the previous one. The recession of this glacier and the simultaneous expansion of the abutting lake forewarns us of the need to conduct further studies to understand the glacier lake dynamics.
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Future expansion, volume , depth and forecasting the modelling the flood indentation of the Padam lake using Hec-ras
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