Publication

Abstract : Electricity traded as a commodity have distinct characteristics of being completely fungible, simultaneous in a generation to usage & at any given time, there should be a near perfect supply-demand equilibrium in the power grids. Smart grids use ancillary services & demand response programs to manage any demand fluctuations. Independent System Operators (ISOs) & Regional Transmission Organisations (RTO) are responsible for keeping the grid balanced with generation & load. Power Grid Corporation (ISO), Indian Energy Exchange (ISO) & Kerala State Electricity Board (RTO) are the key players who perform this function for Kerala region. IEX manage the energy markets by operating three submarkets day-ahead, real-time& capacity markets. Through day-ahead market, electricity generators &load-serving entities submit their bids to receive & offer electricity to the power grid based on varying cost on each hour for the next operating day. In the real-time market, ISO & RTOs manage these changes in production & consumption throughout the day. They optimize the generation dispatch schedule where they consider generation cost & transmission constraints. Capacity markets are employed to have study flow of capital investments in the market thereby increasing the generation capacity. Currently, KSEB forecast & schedule power generation to ensure sufficient power is available at its disposal for transmission. But with generation capacity standing at a mere 30% of demand, it has to depend upon bulk purchases. To bring transparency to KSEB�s procurement programme, the Kerala state regulatory commission (erc Kerala) have provided adequate guidelines to consider commodity markets as well along with its traditional flat-ratecontracts. On this research study, we are forecasting day-ahead electricity spot price at IEX Kerala region using modern electrometric techniques. The time series analysis of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is applied to the historical IEX spot price data starting from 1st February 2017 to 31st January of 2018. In every deregulated electricity market, it�s a practice to perform the price forecasting first and then to prepare the bids accordingly. KSEB can also apply this technique to improve their procurement efficiency. From 2017 onwards, IEX has created a new separate bid region for the Kerala market, making Kerala specific market study very relevant.