Publication

Abstract : Climate change is creating massive worldwide risks to people’s lives and livelihoods. Developing comprehensive and reliable techniques to estimate climate risk is crucial for climate mitigation and adaptation process. By employing multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques using principal component analysis (PCA) and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), this study assessed climate change risks in Raichur Taluk, Karnataka, India. The study developed a novel PCA drought index (PCADI) using ArcGIS incorporating eight drought risk indicators. Ten flood risk parameters were employed using the AHP technique and the flood risk map was created for the Taluk by overlaying the selected weighted thematic layers. As a result, several villages within the Taluk are prone to flooding. Extreme climatic events evaluated by the reconnaissance drought index, standardised precipitation index, and streamflow drought index indicated 20 years of unique drought episodes with differing severity and flood risk over seven different periods. Our study further demonstrated that the annual average count of rainy days when RR ≥ 10 mm and RR ≥ 20 mm was recorded to be 18.33 and 6.49, respectively, showing a declining trend that may worsen the water situation. Results also show shifts in temperature extremes, with decreasing cold days (TX10p) and nights (TN10p) and increasing hot days (TX90p) and nights (TN90p). The validation results indicate strong and significant correlations between meteorological and remote sensing drought indicators; SPI_12 with NDVI and VCI (r = 0.908, p < 0.05; r = 0.983, p < 0.01), VCI with SP1_6 (r = 0.988, p < 0.01), and VCI with RDI (r = 0.988, p < 0.01). The result from the present study along with socioeconomic information of the Raichur Taluk can be used to develop better policies underlying better climate resilient strategies for the Taluk in the future.