Publication

Abstract : Drought is an obscure climatic state that has socioeconomic repercussions on power generation, agricultural production, forestry, tourism and construction. In this study, an Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) based Time Dependent Intrinsic Correlation (TDIC) analysis was conducted to assess the impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to drought events of Peninsular region in India. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at three different time scales (SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12) are considered for analysis. The teleconnections IOD and ENSO on the three indices are evaluated independently using TDIC method and the detection and attribution was made from the obtained correlation plots. From the detailed analysis, short term drought (SPI-3) is found to have better correlation with both IOD and ENSO. It is also interpreted that high frequency modes of SPI-3 have more association to IOD while low frequency modes show more correlation to ENSO. Thereby, IOD experiences a lagged influence on ENSO relation to rainfall. The IMF3 and IMF7 of SPI-12 also show positive association that can be added to existing data for efficient prediction of drought events. Similarly, for ENSO IMF1, IMF6 and IMF7 of SPI-6 and IMF6 and IMF7 of SPI-12 can also be used for determining the drought accurately.